Trend Analysis and Forecasting for Paddy Production in Sri Lanka
نویسندگان
چکیده
Sri Lanka is mainly an agricultural country and about 40 per cent of its working population engaged in agriculture island-wide. Rice cultivated during two seasons; Maha season (October-March) usually accounts for 65% annual production with the remaining 35% coming from Yala (April-September). The objectives this study are to investigate present trend paddy develop most appropriate time series models seasons separately. data were obtained Department Census Statistics 1952 2020. Shapiro-Wilks test was applied check normality dataset. According results, Mann-Kendall test, Cox – Stuart used detect presence trends data. It confirmed that there increasing tendency both seasonal but slope less compared season. In study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method forecast based on historical well-fitted ARIMA model (2,1,1) (2,1,0). performances these validated Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Absolute Percentage (MAPE) values. Finally, best separately predict values variable over next three years. As result forecasting a requirement planning purposes import policy rice, should be kind research.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Applied economics & business
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2613-8360']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4038/aeb.v5i2.33